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Is this the end of the housing market in Phoenix? Between all the new construction, rising interest rates, and stricter lending standards, it seems like the Greater Phoenix real estate market has taken a major hit. But is this the end of the housing market in Phoenix? According to our latest data, home prices in the Phoenix metro area have decreased by 1. 5% over the past month, and they're down by more than 5% over the past year! But fear not market lovers, since our data only reflects the current market conditions (so things could feasibly go back up in the future). So what's causing all of this mayhem? Well, for starters, there's the rising interest rates. According to our LendingTree research, interest rates on 30-year mortgages have surged by almost 3% in the past year, and this has had a big impact on home prices. Additionally, stricter lending standards are now being enforced by the banks, which is making it harder for people to get mortgages. And finally, there's the big issue of new construction. In the past year, there's been a ton of development going on in the Phoenix area, which has made the housing market much more expensive. So if you're looking to buy a home in the Greater Phoenix area, you might want to act fast!
It’s impossible to research the subject of buying a home without coming across a headline declaring that the fall in home affordability is a crisis. However, when we add context to the most recent affordability statistics, we soon realize that, though homes are less affordable than they have been over the last few years, they are more affordable than they historically have been.
Black Knight, a premier provider of data and analytics for the mortgage industry, just released their latest Monthly Mortgage Monitor which includes a new analysis of the affordability situation. Here’s what the report reveals:
“The monthly payment required to purchase the average priced home with a 20% down 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased by nearly 20% (+$210) over the first nine months of 2021, . . . It now requires 21.6% of the median household income to make the monthly mortgage payment on the average home purchase, the least affordable housing has been since 30-year rates rose to nearly 5% back in late 2018.”
Basically, the report shows that homes are less affordable today than at any other time in the last three years. However, in a previous report earlier this year, Black Knight calculated that the percentage of the median household income to make the monthly mortgage payment on the average home purchase over the last 25 years was 23.6% (see graph below):Today’s payment-to-income ratio is more affordable than the average over the last 25 years. Given that context, we can see that American households still have the same ability to be homeowners as their parents did 20 years ago.
This confirms the recent analysis of ATTOM Data resources where Todd Teta, Chief Product and Technology Officer, explains:
“The typical median-priced home around the U.S. remains affordable to workers earning an average wage, despite prices that keep going through the roof. Super-low interests and rising pay continue to be the main reasons why.”
It’s true that it’s less affordable to buy a home today than it has been the last few years. However, it’s more affordable to buy today than the average over the last 25 years. In other words, homes are less affordable, but they’re not unaffordable. That’s an important distinction.
As home prices increase, we are finally seeing demand cool A BIT. It is still strong, however, because of low inventory. This is an excellent time to sell because you can still get top dollar. However, a lot of people are wondering when they should buy. The experts agree that this is the time to buy as well. With low interest rates, your purchasing power will get you into a more expensive house than if rates increase. Also, the prices of houses are cooling off a little bit. No expert in the industry is forecasting prices falling. So this is the bottom before normal appreciation begins.
We are seeing 7 cities moving in favor of a Seller's Market (green arrows) and now are JUST STARTING to see 10 cities moving in favor of Buyers (red arrows).
This does NOT mean prices will fall. It means that no more fuel is being added to the rocket that is taking price higher over the coming months. It still has a massive amount of fuel already on board. But as prices rise, demand should fall and gradually bring us back to some semblance of normalcy.
Curious about local real estate? So are we! Every month we review trends in our real estate market and consider the number of homes on the market in each price tier, the amount of time particular homes have been listed for sale, specific neighborhood trends, the median price and square footage of each home sold and so much more. We’d love to invite you to do the same!
You can sign up here to receive your own market report, delivered as often as you like! It contains current information on pending, active and just sold properties so you can see actual homes in your neighborhood. You can review your area on a larger scale, as well, by refining your search to include properties across the city or county. As you notice price and size trends, please contact us for clarification or to have any questions answered.
We can definitely fill you in on details that are not listed on the report and help you determine the best home for you. If you are wondering if now is the time to sell, please try out our INSTANT home value tool. You’ll get an estimate on the value of your property in today’s market. Either way, we hope to hear from you soon as you get to know our neighborhoods and local real estate market better.